Did you know that by 2030, there will be a $300 billion shortfall in senior living construction in the U.S.?
I heard that this past week at the Environments for Aging Conference + Expo (EFA) in Lexington, Ky. Despite rising demand, construction starts for senior housing remain below pre-pandemic levels.
High interest rates, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles are slowing new development, particularly for more affordable communities. Without innovative models, the U.S. faces a crisis of both capacity and affordability in senior housing -- with the largest impact hitting the forgotten middle.
Boomer Wave
Blame it on us Boomers, because by 2030, we'll all be age 65 or older. Which translates to one in five Americans.
And the thing is, even if the senior living industry started building more, many middle-income seniors will not be able to afford current senior housing options, even if they sell their homes. This is fueling demand for affordable, flexible, and service-light models.
"If we build what we have today, it will be empty," one speaker at EFA said when talking about where we're headed.
Most new construction will be luxury properties that cater to the wealthiest seniors. Ones that promote social connection and wellness while offering upscale amenities.
Which is good news for those of you who design and furnish those types of projects.
Inter-generational Communities Still Trending
Also, many seniors will opt to age in place with home modifications or support services, or right-size to smaller or low-maintenance homes. Another trend that was talked about a lot at EFA again this year is the concept of integrated inter-generational communities.
I was also disappointed to learn in my conversations at EFA that many senior living owners and operators are not asking their design teams to create healthy buildings -- ones that do not harm people or the planet. Many design firms are making healthy product choices anyway because they believe it's the right thing to do.
But senior living owners and operators are missing an opportunity to differentiate themselves by not making healthy buildings part of their mission. I believe the industry will get there, but it may take a little more time.
What About the Future?
Looking ahead, what will happen to all these new and existing senior living communities once the Boomer wave has passed? In a conversation at EFA with Steve Lindsey, CEO of Garden Spot Communities in New Holland, Pa., he told me they are designing properties so that they will appeal to younger generations in the future.
I wonder what that looks and feels like? Perhaps it would be an interesting topic to explore at next year's EFA conference.
Save the date for EFA 2026: March 16-18 in Phoenix, Az!
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